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* Unhedged Value
The Forecaster tool allows investors to select a combination of assets, currencies and time horizons of interest for comparison on a risk-return chart. These forecasts are based on Aberdeen Standard Investments' Long-term Investment Outlook produced by the Global Strategy team at Aberdeen Standard Investments. Click on your currency to download full version: GBP, USD, EUR, AUD. A SUMMARY global edition is also available. These forecasts are updated semi-annually with those published on the website updated first. These forecasts are correct as of August 2019.
Return projections are estimates and provide no guarantee of future results.
For institutional, professional, qualified/wholesale investors only. Not for retail clients.
Structurally we expect equity returns to be a little lower than their long-term average. This is partly a function of subdued long-term economic growth expectations, but also due to cyclically-stretched profit margins and full valuations, especially in the US. The UK is an exception – it is unusually cheap due to Brexit uncertainty and so offers higher return potential. We are increasingly concerned about the outlook for the business cycle. While our base case is for continuation of sluggish growth, there is a relatively high down-side risk of a global recession. Our forecasts are averages across scenarios so this downside risk skews our outlook over this period.
* Unhedged Value
The cash-equity line serves to illustrate risk-adjusted relative performance. Assets above the line are expected to outperform a portfolio of equivalent risk containing only cash and equities; assets below are expected to underperform.