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Cash-equity line

* Unhedged Value

About Forecaster

The Forecaster tool allows investors to select a combination of assets, currencies and time horizons of interest for comparison on a risk-return chart. These forecasts are produced by the Multi-Asset Solutions’ Research team at Aberdeen Standard Investments. These forecasts are updated semi-annually with those published on the website updated first. These forecasts are correct as of June 2020.

DUE TO EXTREME MARKET VOLATILITY SURROUNDING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC WE HAVE RELEASED INTERIM BASELINE FORECASTS AND WILL RESUME PUBLISHING PROBABILITY WEIGHTED FORECASTS IN THE NEXT SEMI-ANNUAL UPDATE.

Return projections are estimates and provide no guarantee of future results.

For institutional, professional, qualified/wholesale investors only. Not for retail clients.

Equities

Equity earnings are expected to grow rapidly as we eventually exit the Covid-19 recession, but we forecast a modest long-term reduction in our expectations for equity earnings growth. However, in our base case, this is more than offset by the impact of a long period of much lower bond yields which boosts equity valuations. The result is attractive equity returns, particularly when compared to bonds. While the US (with its heavy technology and healthcare exposure) led the initial recovery, we expect regions with more cyclical exposures to benefit most in the next phase.

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Cash-equity line

* Unhedged Value

NOTE

The cash-equity line serves to illustrate risk-adjusted relative performance. Assets above the line are expected to outperform a portfolio of equivalent risk containing only cash and equities; assets below are expected to underperform.

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