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* Unhedged Value
The Forecaster tool allows investors to select a combination of assets, currencies and time horizons of interest for comparison on a risk-return chart. These forecasts are based on Aberdeen Standard Investments' Long-term Investment Outlook produced by the Global Strategy team at Aberdeen Standard Investments. Click on your currency to download: GBP, USD, EUR. These forecasts are updated semi-annually with those published on the website updated first. These forecasts are correct as of March 2019.
Our long-term view is that global equity returns, at around 4% per annum, will be weaker than they have been in recent years. Valuations in the US market (60%+ of global equities) are now stretched. Profit margins have most likely reached their cycle peak; we expect only sluggish earnings growth from here. A slower but still solid growth outlook supports equities in the near term, but worries persist about risks resulting from tighter monetary policy and slower growth in China. While it is hard to be too pessimistic about the US market in the short term, cheaper valuations drive our preference for other regions. Emerging markets and Japan are cheapest, but on balance we prefer the UK’s combination of high dividends and relative value. Brexit is a risk for the UK, but not for the FTSE 100, given that most earnings are generated overseas.
* Unhedged Value
The cash-equity line serves to illustrate risk-adjusted relative performance. Assets above the line are expected to outperform a portfolio of equivalent risk containing only cash and equities; assets below are expected to underperform.
NOT FOR RETAIL CLIENTS
For institutional, professional, qualified/wholesale investors only.
Return projections are estimates and provide no guarantee of future results.